Real power fusion
Posted: Fri Mar 25, 2016 2:02 pm
I suppose the usual amount of hoopla around fusion energy will continue forever. However, a realist's approach needs to be made in the light of hard facts and energineering issues. This is in response to the "perfesser's" current lament about fusion on the home page.
It is understood that a number of high powered, high priced efforts in the 50 million dollar price range and up to billions have actually done what is claimed as over unity fusion plasma generation and held it for some minute or two time frames.
What are the current issues and time frames?
1. The short duration is due to forced shutdowns for any number of "we can't go any longer" issues. These issues are "we broke or damaged something" or "the control mechanism was getting highly unstable and we didn't want to break anything". This tells all logical thinkers that they are not even close to a 24-7-365 over unity fusion system. Honest time frame for a 24-7-365 net energy experiment fusion reactor that is still not viable for power generation? God only knows! However, the fact remains they aren't even close.
2. Let us assume that at some future date some experimental reactor does do 24-7-365 fusion at net gain. What is its coefficient of performance? (COP in the energy biz) This all important factor will either drive or crush the commercial power industry to embrace or laugh at the fusion success story. Too low a COP and the money for development just won't be there. Time frame here is instantaneous! either it is efficient or it is not.
3. Let us further assume that after all the addition math of energy input demands to do the 24-7-365 fusion has a cop of 10 or better and the commerical suppliers are happy with this.... Now the bean counters come in......Stand back folks! What is the cost per kwhr to just construct the COP 10 fusion plant of 10 megawatts, plus the 1 megawatt driver/startup/backup, fission, coal or natural gas plant needed to start, run and backup the 10 megawatt fusion plant? If the costs exceed 100% of the current rate of delivered power, it is a non-starter. Time frame here? Probably 10 years as the technology and more experimental reactors attempt to better the performance and the industry looks real close at costs, long term, as two plants might be needed for viable, reliable fusion power.
4. Finally let us take a huge leap forward and say that at some late date all three of the above road blocks melt into oblivion and the experimental reactor can run virtually forever, has a COP of 100+, is fully capable of feeding its own output back to power itself with good distributable energy to spare and is attractive financially to build. How many years will pass after all the foregoing is achieved before the first watt of commercially produced fusion energy will flow out of the first home's wall outlet? A good estimate here would be on the order of the "fission to commercial power" time frame. 20-30 years before at least one plant goes on line (Shippingport). Perhaps 40 years before a good number of plants come on line.
The bottom line here can be readily stated. No newborn taking his first breath now, as I type this missive, will live long enough to see fusion energy flow out of his wall outlet! In short "Be advised all ye that readeth this, that thou shalt not see fusion energy during thy life upon this earth."
.....Then, there is always that lucky donkey.....that monkey wrench flying into the face of convention....that fly in the ointment of establishment fusion.....
We have lived almost 80 years since the discovery of fusion and will continue to live without it producing a watt of consumable electricity for a long time to come. The promises of, and claims for, a bright fusion energy future will continue to flourish, be assured of that.
I felt it was time for another "downer".
Richard Hull
It is understood that a number of high powered, high priced efforts in the 50 million dollar price range and up to billions have actually done what is claimed as over unity fusion plasma generation and held it for some minute or two time frames.
What are the current issues and time frames?
1. The short duration is due to forced shutdowns for any number of "we can't go any longer" issues. These issues are "we broke or damaged something" or "the control mechanism was getting highly unstable and we didn't want to break anything". This tells all logical thinkers that they are not even close to a 24-7-365 over unity fusion system. Honest time frame for a 24-7-365 net energy experiment fusion reactor that is still not viable for power generation? God only knows! However, the fact remains they aren't even close.
2. Let us assume that at some future date some experimental reactor does do 24-7-365 fusion at net gain. What is its coefficient of performance? (COP in the energy biz) This all important factor will either drive or crush the commercial power industry to embrace or laugh at the fusion success story. Too low a COP and the money for development just won't be there. Time frame here is instantaneous! either it is efficient or it is not.
3. Let us further assume that after all the addition math of energy input demands to do the 24-7-365 fusion has a cop of 10 or better and the commerical suppliers are happy with this.... Now the bean counters come in......Stand back folks! What is the cost per kwhr to just construct the COP 10 fusion plant of 10 megawatts, plus the 1 megawatt driver/startup/backup, fission, coal or natural gas plant needed to start, run and backup the 10 megawatt fusion plant? If the costs exceed 100% of the current rate of delivered power, it is a non-starter. Time frame here? Probably 10 years as the technology and more experimental reactors attempt to better the performance and the industry looks real close at costs, long term, as two plants might be needed for viable, reliable fusion power.
4. Finally let us take a huge leap forward and say that at some late date all three of the above road blocks melt into oblivion and the experimental reactor can run virtually forever, has a COP of 100+, is fully capable of feeding its own output back to power itself with good distributable energy to spare and is attractive financially to build. How many years will pass after all the foregoing is achieved before the first watt of commercially produced fusion energy will flow out of the first home's wall outlet? A good estimate here would be on the order of the "fission to commercial power" time frame. 20-30 years before at least one plant goes on line (Shippingport). Perhaps 40 years before a good number of plants come on line.
The bottom line here can be readily stated. No newborn taking his first breath now, as I type this missive, will live long enough to see fusion energy flow out of his wall outlet! In short "Be advised all ye that readeth this, that thou shalt not see fusion energy during thy life upon this earth."
.....Then, there is always that lucky donkey.....that monkey wrench flying into the face of convention....that fly in the ointment of establishment fusion.....
We have lived almost 80 years since the discovery of fusion and will continue to live without it producing a watt of consumable electricity for a long time to come. The promises of, and claims for, a bright fusion energy future will continue to flourish, be assured of that.
I felt it was time for another "downer".
Richard Hull