It Is All About Oil

Reflections on fusion history, current events, and predictions for the 'fusion powered future.
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Tom Dressel
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It Is All About Oil

Post by Tom Dressel »

Since the events of 9/11/01, I have been thinking a lot about what would happen if one of us, working in a garage or basement lab, stumbled upon the secret of nuclear fusion, well beyond the break even point, and actually let the genie out of the bottle.

There would be the obvious cover of Time and News Week magazines, possibly man of the year award, and investers throwing money at the project hoping to get a piece of the action. We could decrease our involvement in the Middle East, which would make the Bin Laden's of the world happy.

But what about the oil barrens of the Middle East, wouldn't they then have issues with us if we told them we dont need their oil any more? They would have to give up their 24 wives, private jets, and limo's, and go back to living in a tent in the desert with the camels. What about he US oil companies, that could only sell oil to the chemical companies and the makers of vasoline. Would they then become the next in line to become terrorists?

Would the hapless fusioner, who walked through the mirror, and found the secret to fusion, then have a target on his forehead?

Oh well just a thought.

Tomn Dressel
DaveC
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Re: It Is All About Oil

Post by DaveC »

What if the Middle East were to experience a fairly large ( 8.5 - 9.0 on the Richter Scale) earthquake. It could shift the geologic structures so as to shut down some or all of the wells. The economic impact could make whoever has a working, greater than breakeven fusion device.... irresistable. Life styles in the US would change dramatically.


Dave Cooper

Dave Cooper
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Post by guest »

Personally I wonder how practical it would make space travel for private business. A nuclear rocket motor would have to be more efficient than what we have now, maybe making a single stage job practical.
ijv
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Re: It Is All About Oil

Post by ijv »

Realisitcally, it would be at least 10 years (and perhaps 20) after the inital break through before commercial fusion plants could come on line.

Plenty of time for everyone to plot & scheme.....

Besides which, fusion wouldn't change our dependence on hydrocarbon transport fuels.
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Richard Hull
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Re: It Is All About Oil

Post by Richard Hull »

Ivan is correct. Total fusion success would impact our use of oil not one Iota for maybe 5-10 years, minimum! (assumes immediate national shift and a non-resistant infrastructure)

Development, infrastructure shift, testing and debugging, reduction of rad hazards and the first commercial plant would be years off. Fission power happened within 10-15 years of WWII only because of the cold war and the need to hype public nuclear power to get lots of money for research in improving bombs and the fission process. It was a national effort. Power companies looked at it as a cheap source of nearly limitless power with a lifetime, government warranted, supply of fissionable products. The public slowly became tired of living under the bomb. Being impotent to stop the cold war, they turned on the nuclear genies being assembled in their backyards.

Fusion, if achieved, and unless some totally unappreciated aspect of doing it is found, is likely to make fission plants look like a child's erector set in relative complexity.

Remember, in fission you only need a few pounds of material, closed up in a box with water pipes and merely push the pieces together carefully using control rods of cadmium or other material as a throttle. The safety stuff is about 75% of the cost of the plant. A fusion plant should be little different except it won't be as simple at the base level as above. Again, assuming traditional fusion thinking for power.

Currently, the only advantage I see in fusion is that a meltdown or explosion is virtually impossible and if an earth quake split the plant into two pieces the nuclear residue scattering would be limited. Remember, a 100 megawatt fusion plant that relys on neutrons at all is producing way over 100 megawatts of neutrons, with associated 100 megawatt hour production of rad waste to the vessel and immediate containment vessel just like a fission reactor.

If we use only Alpha particles in fusion, (unlikely), they will still make radioactives near the 100mw power level. At these power levels, there will be nasty stuff produced enmass. You can go to the bank with that one.

Bottom line...................If we are successful tomorrow morning at 10 AM in doing novel and over unity fusion........ We are hung with current methods, infrastructure and fossil fuels for many years to come.

The fiddles are distantly heard in Rome, and I smell smoke. But hey, we are all employed from fusion minded eggheads to Joe th' roofer and the band plays on.

Can you say Malthusian Climax?

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
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Post by guest »

I think oil will still be used in the fusion age. Only with fusion ( or big solar space platforms ) can we start to recycle hydrocarbons on a large scale since we have the energy to do it. I suspect that solar platforms will be the energy souce of the future if somebody ( hint USA ) permited
private devlopent ( and funded wisely ) of reusable space craft. Fusion will be important but only because it is recylable energy.
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Post by guest »

New jitters on the oil front.
The Isreali and Palistinean conflict could cause our Arab Allies to signifigantly raise prices or cut it off to get the attension of the Bush White House. I have friends that tell me that oil production in the US has stopped due to price considerations. The US has a
lot of untapped areas in the mainland the have been explored then capped. How long they will last is anybody's guess. Happy Motoring!

Larry Leins
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Lugnut
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Re: It Is All About Oil

Post by Lugnut »

I wonder why ITT dropped Farnsworth's research way back in 69. It seems to me he was much farther along than the tokamack, with a far more elegant design. A energy producing fusion reactor should have happenned years ago.

Big science likes big projects like the Manhatten Project. More jobs, more money. Especially jobs for the administrators, maybe that is what big science is all about.

But this is all politics. Maybe its not too late to get back to some basic science as it used to be done. Has anybody else noticed that most of the 20th century progress was really engineering based on science from the 19th century or at least the early 20th century? Looks to me like all that money has just hindered 'real' progress in knowledge.

Still, I wonder what would have been the outcome if all that money sunk into the donut had been spent on IEC style reactors instead.

Anyway, thats what I think.
Jim Balding
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Post by guest »

If the "Genie" was discovered and all these problems happened......Then all I would say is "Oh well...." This country has gone through much worse growing pains than that.

As a result of 9-11, this country should be just DUMPING money into alternate fuel technology. Obviously there not.

This is not a narrow minded concept. Most "non-technical" people I have spoke with have brought up this concept many times. Its apparently wide spread.

It only seems logical.

Mark Rowley
Garage Scientist (unlicensed)
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Post by guest »

The oil lobby is a vast influence on Washington.
Just look who's president.
Oil has been a winning hand since the 1900's,
only now is it in question.
The old dogs will sing the praises of oil until they eat stones.
Alternate energies await the fall of king oil.
Unfortunately America might fall with it.

Larry Leins
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Richard Hull
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Re: It Is All About Oil

Post by Richard Hull »

Larry is correct here. America is so locked into oil that to even suggest another source is not only genuinely bad economics, but begs the legitimate question what-a-ya got ta' put in its place?

This is similar to scientific arguments against complaints with problems with EM theory, etc. It is not enough to see the problem and point it out. The retort is always, "What do you have to put in its place, smart guy?" It is maddening. In short, there are too many chicken littles....... and few of them standing there with readily implimentable soulutions. Those that offer solutions are shouted down by a plethora of enviromentalists, special local interest groups, bleeding hearts and so forth who got there first and have lobbying groups already in place.

Infrastructures built around oil are worth billions! (this is free and clear of the actual oil business) They employ millions. They want a paycheck no matter what. The investors expect dividends. The politicians expect endorsements, money and a next term.

As long as there is a drop in the pipeline, the good ship lollipop sails on into the ever more murky night.

When the oil goes away, it will all collapse, people will be disillusioned. They will then panic. There will be a search for the guilty, punishment for the innocent and praise and honors for the non-participants.

The question is, will what remains be savable or worth saving?

Yes, some will eat stones.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
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Post by guest »

Yes, I completely agree. It was much better under the President who was warned about terrorist plots by Russia, The UK, Germany, Israel, and Japan and ignored it. I would much prefer the man who gutted national security, ignored the military, and refused to go after the terrorists when they were vulnerable. Yes, I much prefer the man who in his last year in office visited every state in the union and pardoned every lowlife with some cash instead of worrying about security, the economy, fuel prices, or any other damn thing.

NOT!

Is Bush influenced by big oil? Yes. But at least we are starting to see some progress in resolving some of our energy problems, such as the lack of standards and the lack of sufficient NG pipelines. So far since he has been Pres., security has been tightened, gas prices are stable, budgets for R&D on renewable energy sources have actually increased, the economy (which began imploding while Clinton was in office) has rebounded, and he has not committed perjury in court. Not bad.

Mine is only one voice, but I guess the point of my soapbox rant is that I would prefer politics to be confined to other boards, excepting specific policy decisions relating to our chosen subject.

IMHO
TBenson
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Re: It Is All About Oil

Post by TBenson »

I've seen proposals for advanced Fission plants (for example, sub-critical Thorium reactors, driven by neutrons generated from high-energy spallation) which claim to have all of the benefits, and the same or less problems, at a much lower cost, than fusion.

I would think that the first application for a Fusor type gadget, even if it doesn't hit a Q of 1, would be as a "driver" for a reactor like this...a hybrid fusion-fission reactor.

Has anybody on these forums ever calculated what Q rating would make a fusion device viable for a fusion-fission hybrid (let's say, with raw U238 or Thorium?)
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Post by guest »

It was not a moral judgement on Mr Bush's character that's at stake here but rather the observation of the power of fossil fuels over our government. (Believe it or not I am a Republican and an Ex-Texan. I like what he stands for but I am also aware of the restraints of the White House energy policy. Do you really think that without the oil money made in the Midland strike that the Bushs would be at the forefront of power? Not likely. It costs money to go to Yale and even more to get into the Skulls. ) Even though we have more impetus on alternate energy since Jimmy Carter, all it takes to imperil this country is a serious oil disruption. All it would take is for some idiot to blow up the 70 mile pipeline between Khatar and the Arabian sea terminal in Saudi Arabia. I sincerely doubt that some Alkieda followers haven't already planned on this since most of the members were from Saudi . The pipeline is utterly vunerable in that it runs for miles in the dessert. It took 20 years to build the darn thing and would only take seconds to end it. The same for the Alaska Pipeline. It would cause serious disruption for many months if not years. To switch back to full scale use of coal will take even more time to implement.
Does America have the time?
******new
Fusion is to be the coal of the twenty first century.
If we are to pretend to believe in increasing standards of living for future generations fusion is it.
We have to bring the world along with America to prevent strife.
Fusion has all that potential.
Anyone want to be Prometheus?
We have a liver eating eagle and your rock waiting with
chains just like you like them.
( you just can't get better than the Greek & Roman Classics)

As for fusor breeders
Been there done that.
I worked for the company that proposed all that stuff in the late seventies.
Spallation is a .2 % operation. The Canadian government spent millions at Chalk River on a linac
driven breader. It was shut down within a year of operation. Even a superconducting cyclotron isn't any better.... most energy is wasted pushing back the target or doing the random walk inside the target just heating it. The only hope for spallation is to use an antiproton. As of this date antimatter is availible in only the nanogram quantity range. Too expensive for normal use.
Central scaled technology like that are vastly inefficient when you total up all the upkeep.
Ralph Nader is not my favorite person in the world but his group Public Citizen laid bare the upkeep on the nuclear industry. Without the bomb connection the nuclear industry as it exists today would never made it.
The cost of refining (enrichment) exceeds the revenue from the nuclear plant. Oak Ridge is still yet to pay it's way. Using lasers to enrich fuel is better on effiency
but then there's the problem of supply. Most of the good stuff went into weapons I sincerely doubt now that the government would be inclined to recycle too
many of the bomb pits back to civilian fuel because if they did the monies exspended into making the thing would be lost. A 20 KT bomb still costs in the neighbor hood of a million dollars. If you turned it into MOX it would lose about half it's value when you burn the metal to oxide. Using a fusor to make enriched fuel would be pretty futile. Especially thorium. A forrest of gamma intensive waste would be produced along with the minute speck of U233. Five hundred pounds of waste for every gram of U233. Where are you an individual going to bury it? Your back yard? I don't think so. If you think the chemical processing of the bread material is trivial. Think again. The units at Gamble mountain facility looked like something out of the Panama cannal era. The unit has cost billions to run and maintain the canyon extractors for the thorax process.
Just try to get any Thorium after 9-11.
Not only will you not get any amount over 1 kg.
The FBI will watch you for years.

Larry Leins
Physics Teacher
TBenson
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Re: It Is All About Oil

Post by TBenson »

Hey, none of that Promethus stuff...uh-uh, no way.

Personally my suggestion, for anybody who stumbles on the secret of practical fusion power, is to put a sample reactor in a box and ship it to Bill Gates. Let him take the credit, and deal with the hassles of celebrity. He's got all the cash needed to hire a security force. It ain't worth it otherwise.
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Post by guest »

The best way around the prometheian issue is just to
publish all the details completely and thoughly. If it was just one promethius then the world could chain him down. Give them millions of people to chase. The best part about giving it away is the smart folk will build it and the laggards will fein. Besides if I give it away it will be years before the regulation farie will be turned loose. If I hoard the secret the regulators and government gommers will beat a path straight to your
door. Bill Gates is a prisoner of fame. Don't give it to him. (outside computers he's just like anybody else) The process has been hoarded enough by ITT.
Give it away and it's truely yours.
I learned this concept from Don Lancaster.
Hey Tom why not sign in at the introduce yourself forum?

Larry Leins
Physics Teacher
TBenson
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Re: It Is All About Oil

Post by TBenson »

Actually I did sign in to the "introduce yourself" area and was very courteously recieved. Thanks...
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Post by guest »

I'm sorry Tom... I welcomed you.
This fusion stuff gets you so busy that you forget your cares and woes... your name...and what you did last week.

Many pardons
Larry Leins
Physics Teacher
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Re: It Is All About Oil

Post by guest »

Its time to stop this string.....Enough already.

Mark Rowley
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Re: It Is All About Oil

Post by guest »

Mark:

I was moved by the suffering in the Jenean Camp.
I requested that the post 2002-04-17 15:43 Re: It Is All About Oil (3l) be removed by Mr Edgar.
I tried to delete the message after the BBC coverage of what happened out of reverence for the dead but couldn't remove the message.


Sincerely
Larry Leins
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